The electric vehicle sales of the first quarter of 2023 experienced a significant surge.

The first quarter of 2023 has provided promising early indications of a buoyant market for electric cars. This positive trend can be attributed to decreasing costs and enhanced policy support in key markets, notably Canada and United States. Current estimate suggests that approximately 14 million electric cars will be sold globally in 2023, building upon the already impressive figure of over 2.3 million units sold in the first quarter alone. This projection reflects a significant 35% surge in electric car sales compared to 2022, elevating the global electric sales share to approximately 18% as opposed to 14% in 2022.

Electric car sales in the initial three months of 2023 have exhibited robust growth when compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, in the United States, more than 320,000 electric cars were sold, signifying a remarkable 60% increase over the corresponding timeframe last year.

Taking recent trends into account and considering that stricter CO2 targets will not be enforced until 2025, the growth of electric car sales in Europe is expected to be the slowest among the three major markets. In the first quarter of 2023, electric car sales in Europe increased by approximately 10% compared to the same period in 2022. For the entire year, our current forecast predicts a growth rate of over 25% in electric car sales, with electric vehicles accounting for one in four cars sold in Europe.

Outside of the primary electric vehicle (EV) markets, electric car sales are projected to reach around 900,000 units in 2023, representing a substantial 50% increase over 2022 figures. Notably, electric car sales in India during the first quarter of 2023 have already doubled compared to the same period in 2022. In India and other regions outside the three major EV markets, we expect electric car sales to constitute 2-3% of total car sales in 2023, indicating a relatively small yet growing market share.

However, it is essential to acknowledge the downside risks that may impact the 2023 outlook. A sluggish global economy, along with the phasing out of NEV subsidies in China, could potentially hinder the growth of global electric car sales in 2023. Conversely, there are upside possibilities, such as the emergence of new markets at a faster pace than anticipated, as the persistent high oil prices make a compelling case for electric vehicles in an increasing number of scenarios. Additionally, new policy developments, like the proposed strengthening of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards for cars by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2023, have the potential to provide sales-boosting signals even before their implementation.